Brent Crude Crossed $94. These 5 Stocks Are Bleeding First.

Brent crude surged past $94/barrel this week — a 30% spike driven by US-Iran tensions and Strait of Hormuz disruption fears. For India, which imports 85% of its oil, this isn't just a headline. It's a direct hit to the bottom line of some of the most widely-held stocks on NSE.

Here are five companies whose own filings tell you exactly how exposed they are.

1. Hindustan Petroleum (HINDPETRO) — Down 5.3% this week

HPCL is the most vulnerable of the three state-owned oil marketing companies. Their quarterly results show revenue of Rs 4,64,020 crore but wafer-thin net margins. When crude spikes, HPCL absorbs the hit because the government controls petrol and diesel prices. Their LPG under-recoveries have already doubled from Rs 33 to Rs 69 per cylinder this quarter. At $94 crude, that number gets worse.

2. Bharat Petroleum (BPCL) — Down 6% on Monday alone

BPCL's own filings reveal the math: their average Gross Refining Margin (GRM) was $20.24 per barrel in FY23, up from $9.66 the year before. But as they noted, "suppressed marketing margins of certain petroleum products have offset the benefit of higher GRM." Translation: even when refining margins look good on paper, government price controls eat the profit. At $94 crude, the squeeze intensifies.

3. Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) — The biggest volume player

IOC processes the most crude in India. Their filings show a core GRM of $20.55 per barrel for April-December 2022, but this was during a favorable cycle. The company explicitly flagged "inventory loss/gain" as a factor — when crude swings violently upward, IOC sits on inventory bought at lower prices but faces replacement costs that crush near-term margins.

4. InterGlobe Aviation / IndiGo (INDIGO) — Fuel is 40%+ of costs

IndiGo's quarterly results lay it out clearly: aircraft fuel expenses were Rs 68,414 crore in Q3 alone, making up roughly 40% of total operating expenses. IndiGo doesn't hedge fuel costs. Every $10 increase in crude translates directly to hundreds of crores in additional expenses per quarter. The airline posted fuel expenses of Rs 2,36,460 crore for the full year — that number is about to look significantly worse.

5. Chennai Petroleum (CHENNPETRO) — Small refiner, big exposure

As a standalone refiner without the downstream retail cushion of IOC or BPCL, Chennai Petroleum's margins are entirely at the mercy of the crude-to-product spread. Their filings show volatile swings — from Rs 301 crore profit before tax in one quarter to Rs 35 crore in the next. At $94 crude, small refiners with no pricing power get hit hardest.

What retail investors should do

If you hold OMCs, understand that the government will eventually raise fuel prices — the question is when and by how much. Analysts estimate Rs 5-10 per litre hikes are coming. For IndiGo, watch their next quarterly result closely — fuel cost as a percentage of revenue will tell you whether they could pass costs through via higher fares. For now, these five stocks are priced for pain.