RBI decides Wednesday. These seven companies already published exactly what a hike costs them

RBI decides Wednesday. These seven companies already published exactly what a hike costs them

The Monetary Policy Committee meets 5–7 October, and for the first time in this cycle the argument is about a hike rather than a cut. Around 60% of economists in a Reuters poll expect 25 basis points on Wednesday, with crude back above $100 and the rupee near 97 doing most of the persuading. Brokerages have responded as they always do: by publishing "rate-sensitive" baskets, usually some mix of real estate, autos, NBFCs and power.

You do not have to guess. Under Ind AS 107, every listed Indian company must publish an interest-rate sensitivity note in its annual report — a line stating what a specified move in rates would have done to profit before tax. It is the most under-read table in Indian financial reporting, and it answers the question directly. We pulled this year's notes from NSE filings. They do not line up with the baskets.

The one that is genuinely exposed: Tata Power

Tata Power's FY26 annual report is blunt about it. "If the interest rates had been 50 basis points higher or lower and all the other variables were held constant," the effect on the Group's profit before tax would be ₹208.05 crore — down from ₹224.36 crore a year earlier. Against FY26 consolidated profit before tax of ₹6,635.99 crore, a 25bp hike works out to roughly ₹104 crore, or about 2.8% of the ₹3,747.19 crore profit attributable to owners.

The more useful detail is where that exposure sits. The same annual report puts the standalone company's sensitivity at only ₹47.54 crore per 50bp (FY25: ₹54.62 crore). Roughly three-quarters of the group's floating-rate exposure is in the subsidiaries — renewables and distribution — not in the parent whose share price people trade.

The biggest number in the set belongs to a lender: PFC

Power Finance Corporation's FY26 annual report carries the largest single rate disclosure here, and it is not framed as a loss. Following RBI guidelines, PFC reports Earnings at Risk: "if rates are increased/decreased by 25 bps, the impact on EaR will be (+/-) ₹230.36 crore" (FY25: ₹213.56 crore). That is explicitly a two-way number — PFC presents it as risk in both directions, not a windfall.

What sits underneath it is the interesting part. PFC's borrowings at 31 March 2026 were ₹3,15,891.76 crore fixed against ₹1,72,624.26 crore floating — only about 35% of a ₹4,88,516.02 crore book reprices at all. And inside the same consolidated notes, subsidiary REC's table shows a 50bp move swinging ₹2,112.87 crore on floating and semi-fixed rate loan assets against ₹312.51 crore on floating-rate loan liabilities. That is nearly seven times more repricing on the asset side than the liability side. For a lender funded largely by fixed-rate bonds whose loan book floats, that asymmetry is the entire argument. One caveat worth respecting: the published table's sign convention flips between the FY26 and FY25 columns, so read the magnitudes rather than the brackets.

Vedanta quietly took the trade off

Vedanta is the name most retail investors reach for when they think "leveraged." Its own filings say that has changed fast. The FY26 annual report's sensitivity table shows a 1.00% rise in rates hitting pre-tax profit by ₹121 crore, against ₹366 crore for FY25. The FY24 annual report put the same 100bp figure at ₹475 crore for FY24 and ₹435 crore for FY23.

So the published series runs ₹435 crore → ₹475 crore → ₹366 crore → ₹121 crore. Vedanta has cut its disclosed rate sensitivity by about 75% in two years. Whatever else the balance sheet is, it is no longer a rate trade.

UPL: right risk, wrong central bank

UPL looks like an obvious casualty — until you read which currency the risk is in. Its FY26 annual report splits the group's exposure: a 50bp move in USD and EUR rates costs ₹66 crore (FY25: ₹81 crore), while 100bp on "Others" — which includes rupee borrowings — costs just ₹5 crore. Standalone, a full 100bp move is ₹7 crore (FY25: ₹12 crore).

UPL has real floating-rate risk. The RBI simply is not the central bank that sets it.

Three that already termed out

JSW Energy shows the clearest defensive move. Its FY26 standalone borrowings grew from ₹9,758.83 crore to ₹14,890.72 crore, but floating-rate debt barely moved — ₹3,527.99 crore to ₹3,992.79 crore. Around nine-tenths of ₹5,132 crore of fresh borrowing was taken at fixed rates. The resulting sensitivity is ₹20.02 crore per 50bp (FY25: ₹17.73 crore). Adani Ports discloses ₹32.66 crore per 50bp in its FY25 annual report (FY24: ₹13.28 crore) — small against its profit base, reflecting a debt stack weighted to fixed-rate foreign bonds. Ashok Leyland, the reflexive "rate-sensitive auto" pick, reports a group impact of ₹9.65 crore per 25bp in FY26 (FY25: ₹7.05 crore), with the standalone company at ₹1.01 crore.

What retail investors should do

Stop trading the label and read the note. Before Wednesday, open the latest annual report of anything you own that is described as "rate-sensitive," search for "interest rate sensitivity," and divide the disclosed number by profit before tax. In most of this sample the answer is between 0.1% and 3% of PBT — real, but nowhere near what a 4% single-day move in a "rate-sensitive" stock implies.

Three checks. Compare standalone against consolidated — Tata Power's risk is three-quarters in subsidiaries, which changes who absorbs it. Check the currency — UPL's exposure is dollar and euro, and an RBI hike does nothing to it. And read last year's column next to this year's: Vedanta's four-year series says more about management intent than any broker note will.

Finally, note what these tables do not capture: demand. A hike that raises home loan EMIs or vehicle finance costs hits volumes through a channel no Ind AS 107 note measures. These disclosures size the interest bill, not the order book.

Data sourced from company filings on NSE via Xaro.