Today is the first trading session since the ruling, but preliminary rates came in February (anti-subsidy) and April (anti-dumping), and the filings since then show most Indian manufacturers have already rearranged their businesses. The useful question isn't "who makes solar panels?" It's "whose order book still depends on shipping from India to the US?"
Named in the ruling, but little left to lose
Premier Energies (PREMIERENE). Its subsidiary is a named respondent, but its forward business shows little US exposure. Premier's order book at March 31, 2025 was 99% domestic and 1% export, per its Q4 FY25 presentation, and management said on the Q3 FY25 call that exports would be "limited to 3%" by choice. On the Q4 FY26 call in May, it said its US plans now centre on "cell manufacturing" there, not on exports from India. In August it called Europe "in a take off stage". Adani Enterprises (ADANIENT). Mundra Solar was once a genuine US exporter: on the Q2 FY24 call, management said it had shipped 792 MW of modules over two quarters, "mostly US." By the Q1 FY27 presentation in July 2026, module capacity had expanded to 5.7 GW and "domestic demand fully absorbs export offtake." Emmvee (EMMVEE) is the clearest domestic pure-play. On its Q4 FY26 call, management said "FY26 we had zero exports," confirmed there were no export orders in the book, and called exports "an upside... rather than the core part of our business." Its December 2025 investor presentation cited industry data showing 97% of India's FY25 module exports went to the US.Where the real exposure sits
Waaree Energies (WAAREEENER) is the biggest US player, and it has moved much of its US supply onto US soil. Per its Q1 FY27 presentation, overseas revenue was ₹1,609 crore versus ₹1,564 crore a year earlier. Within that, revenue from its US factories rose from ₹530 crore to ₹1,322 crore, while direct exports from India fell from ₹1,034 crore to ₹287 crore. On August 29, its board approved about US$37 million to upgrade its Arizona plant, lifting total US module capacity to 4.8 GW (3.2 GW Texas, 1.6 GW Arizona).The switch has a cost. Q1 FY27 revenue grew 79.2% to ₹7,932 crore, but profit after tax grew only 15.4% to ₹892 crore, and operating EBITDA margin was 18.2%, against 25.5% in Q3 FY26. Among the reasons management gave: "our export mix were softer as some shipments and clearances took longer than we would have liked." On the same call, an analyst put US exports at 25% of the roughly ₹61,500 crore order book; management replied that US capacity "is ramping up and catching up soon." Whatever part of that book still ships from India is what the final duty makes expensive.
Vikram Solar (VIKRAMSOLR) has no US factory. In May, management said it is focusing capital on India because "India as an opportunity looks infinitely more attractive." Exports were 15% of its order book in October 2025 (which management tied to US customers), 16% in January and 13% at Q4 FY26. That Q4 presentation also footnotes a 0.6 GW US order as "project shelved." In January, management said Indian cells were already "unviable" for US exports because of the US reciprocal tariff on India. By May: "exports from the Indian domain to the US have slimmed to almost negligible levels." It is lining up North African cell capacity that "does not attract high tariffs" to fulfil the remaining export orders. That 13% depends on the workaround. Saatvik Green Energy (SAATVIKGL) has little at stake, with exports "less than 1%" of sales per its Q3 FY26 call. But its FY26 annual report, filed September 2, still describes a Houston subsidiary distributing "made-in-India" modules and pitches the US for "typically higher realisations." The final duty shuts that route.The bigger driver is at home
The same filings point to a domestic rule that matters more for FY27. ALMM List-II, the government's approved list for solar cells, which requires Indian-made cells in covered projects, took effect on June 1, 2026. Premier expects "the entire solar sector except for utility-scale segment to shift towards ALMM-2 or domestic cells." Emmvee's July 2026 presentation notes that modules using domestic cells were priced ~60% higher than those using imported cells. That favours makers with their own cell lines. Trade press quotes JMK Research putting India's US module exports at just 2–3 GW a year, small next to domestic volumes, which limits how much stranded export supply comes back home.
What retail investors should do
Don't treat this ruling as a blanket hit to "Indian solar." For each holding, check the latest order-book split and ask whether the export portion relies on India-made cells or modules. The two to watch are Vikram's 13% export book (does the North Africa route deliver?) and Waaree's remaining India-to-US orders. For Waaree, next quarter's US-made revenue line and EBITDA margin will show whether Texas and Arizona can absorb the lost exports. For Premier, Emmvee and Adani, the US ruling is largely noise; their earnings hinge on domestic cell demand under ALMM List-II. And the duties aren't formally ordered until the ITC votes on October 14.
Data sourced from company filings on NSE via Xaro.