Crude oil hit a six-week high near $96 per barrel on July 23 as U.S.-Iran tensions escalated further, sending Indian markets tumbling for a fourth straight session. The Sensex shed 350 points and the Nifty slipped near 23,900.

This is not a one-day blip. Per Reliance Industries' Q1 FY27 investor presentation filed on July 17, average Brent crude prices rose approximately 54% year-on-year to $104.5 per barrel during the April-June 2026 quarter. Brent touched a high of $144 per barrel during the quarter before easing, driven by Middle East conflict-related supply disruptions that knocked out over 12 million barrels per day of production.

The damage is already showing up in corporate earnings. Here is what the filings tell us.

The Losers

IndiGo (INDIGO) — India's largest airline reported Q1 FY27 results on July 23, and they confirm the oil price damage. Revenue rose 19% to INR 256.1 billion, but total expenses surged 34% to INR 258.5 billion, tipping the airline into a net loss of INR 2.38 billion. That is a swing from a profit of INR 21.8 billion in Q1 FY26, when Brent averaged just $67.8 per barrel. EBITDAR margins crashed from 28.0% to 15.6%. For the full year FY26, IndiGo posted a net loss of INR 23.9 billion — its first annual loss since the pandemic — compared with a profit of INR 72.6 billion in FY25, per its Q4 FY26 investor presentation. Aviation turbine fuel is IndiGo's single largest cost line, and ATF cracks (the premium refiners charge over crude) have risen 4.4 times year-on-year, per Reliance's Q1 FY27 filings. Berger Paints (BERGEPAINT) — Paint companies are among the less obvious casualties. Berger's material cost was 66.2% of total income in Q3 FY23, per its investor presentation, and key inputs — Rutile (titanium dioxide), monomers, and solvents — are all crude oil derivatives. The company's Q4 FY25 gross margin of 41.2% was a 12-quarter high, explicitly driven by falling raw material prices. Per the earnings call transcript, management purchased extra Rutile ahead of anti-dumping duties and extra monomers at favorable rates, leveraging the crude deflation environment. That tailwind is now reversing hard. Asian Paints (ASIANPAINT) — The sector leader flagged crude-linked risks explicitly in its FY26 annual report filed in June 2026: "Geopolitical tensions and tariff changes may lead to supply chain disruptions" and "Material price inflation" as a top risk. Asian Paints uses cutting-edge technology for raw material procurement planning and hedges foreign currency risks, but hedging only delays the pain — it does not eliminate it when crude sustains above $90 for multiple quarters.

The Winners

Oil India (OIL) — For upstream exploration and production companies, every dollar increase in crude flows almost directly to the top line. Oil India's FY25 standalone revenue was INR 23,987 crore with an operating margin of 31.0% and PAT of INR 6,114 crore, per its May 2025 investor presentation. Crucially, FY25 crude realization was $78.09 per barrel. During H1 FY26, when crude fell to an average of $67.22 per barrel, Oil India's management stated in their November 2025 earnings call that the 18.1% decline in crude oil price realization was "the major driver in decline of operating revenues." The reverse holds true today — at current crude levels near $96-104 per barrel, Oil India's realization would be roughly 25-33% higher than FY25, with production growing at a steady 2% CAGR over the last five years. ONGC — India's largest upstream producer saw its standalone operating margin reach 37.1% in Q1 FY26 when Brent averaged $67.8 per barrel, per its August 2025 board outcome filing. Higher crude prices mechanically boost ONGC's realization since its domestic crude is priced at a benchmark-linked formula. The company's E&P segment — both offshore and onshore — is a direct beneficiary. ONGC's consolidated revenue from operations was INR 684,829 crore in FY24, with the E&P segment contributing the bulk of profitability. Reliance Industries (RELIANCE) — Reliance is the most nuanced story. Its Q1 FY27 investor presentation reveals that while crude prices spiked, refining fuel cracks also surged — gasoline margins rose 2.6 times year-on-year, gasoil 4.0 times, and ATF 4.4 times. These elevated cracks offset higher input costs for Reliance's massive refining complex. However, throughput fell to 18.1 million metric tonnes from 19.1 million in Q1 FY26 due to feedstock shortages from Middle East disruptions. Reliance has partly mitigated this by diversifying its crude basket with higher sourcing from Russia and Latin America, reducing dependence on Arabian Gulf crudes.

What Retail Investors Should Do

Do not panic-sell airlines or paint companies, but recognize that oil above $90 per barrel is a structural headwind that will persist for at least one or two more quarters. IndiGo's Q1 FY27 loss at $104.5 average Brent is a data point, not a thesis — if geopolitical tensions ease and crude retraces toward $75-80, these stocks recover fast.

For those looking to hedge oil risk in their portfolio, upstream plays like Oil India and ONGC offer a natural offset. Oil India's 31% operating margin at $78 crude and ONGC's 37% standalone operating margin at $68 crude suggest both names have meaningful earnings upside at current prices — and both are still trading below their 52-week highs.

Watch the Strait of Hormuz and any ceasefire signals. The filing data shows these companies' fortunes move in lockstep with the barrel price. The market already knows this — but the specific magnitude of pain (IndiGo losing INR 238 crore in one quarter) and gain (Oil India's potential 25-33% revenue boost) is what the filings uniquely reveal.

Data sourced from company filings on NSE via Xaro.