India-US Trade Deal at 18% Tariff Enters Final Lap — The Non-Textile Stocks With Most at Stake

India-US Trade Deal at 18% Tariff Enters Final Lap — The Non-Textile Stocks With Most at Stake

US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer landed in New Delhi this week for what both sides are calling the final stage of an interim India-US trade deal. The target: an 18% tariff on Indian goods, down from the current 26% reciprocal duty, with India pushing to sign phase one before the July 24 deadline. India's trade surplus with the US has already fallen over 40%, signaling New Delhi's intent to close quickly.

The market conversation naturally gravitates toward textiles, India's most visible US export sector. But a deeper look at company filings reveals that the companies with the sharpest earnings sensitivity to this deal are scattered across seafood, auto components, aerospace, and specialty chemicals.

Apex Frozen Foods (APEX): The Shrimp Exporter That Pivoted Under Pressure

Apex Frozen Foods derives roughly half its revenue from the US — 48% as of FY26. That share was 64% just two years ago, per their Q4 FY26 investor presentation. The decline was not voluntary: "Tariff-related uncertainties in the USA impacted shrimp sales in FY26," management noted, forcing a pivot to European markets that grew 19% year-on-year.

Despite this headwind, Apex delivered FY26 revenue of Rs 931 crore (up 14% YoY) and saw EBITDA surge 145% to Rs 73 crore with margins expanding 405 basis points to 7.7%. A lower tariff would reopen the US market without Apex having to give back its hard-won EU diversification — essentially a two-front growth story.

Avanti Feeds (AVANTIFEED): Largest Aquaculture Player Sees US Demand Improving

In its Q4 FY26 earnings call from June 2026, Avanti Feeds stated: "Shrimp exports in the United States has improved following the recent developments in U.S. Trade Policy, while some uncertainty remains regarding the final tariff structure applicable to seafood imports, the overall environment has become more favourable for exports." The company is also expanding into value-added products and new geographies to reduce single-market dependence. An 18% tariff versus the current regime would sharply improve unit economics on US-bound shipments.

Unimech Aerospace (UNIMECH): 80% US Exposure in Aerospace Precision Parts

Unimech Aerospace, a small-cap precision manufacturer, derives 90% of its revenue from exports, with roughly 80% destined for the US. Per their November 2025 earnings call, management disclosed that 80% of tooling manufactured is consumed outside the US through a drop-shipment strategy — only about 20% of actual shipments face the tariff directly, and the hit on that portion is shared between Unimech and its customers. An 18% tariff versus 26% reduces the cost-sharing burden, improving margins on one of the highest-growth segments of Indian manufacturing.

Rolex Rings (ROLEXRINGS): Auto Components Bearing the 25% Burden

Rolex Rings, which makes bearing rings and auto components, reported exports at 43% of revenue. Management stated in their earnings call that "the major portion of our US exports may take duty burden of 25%, which we are in dialogues with our customer where we do not anticipate any kind of hurdle to pass on." They expect the trade deal closure to be "in a win-win situation for even for the exports and imports at USA." A reduction from 25% to 18% directly improves pricing competitiveness against Chinese and Southeast Asian rivals.

Rico Auto Industries (RICOAUTO): Auto Parts Giant Watching Tariffs on a Rs 4,882 Crore Order Book

Rico Auto's exports accounted for 16% of its FY25 revenue of Rs 2,225 crore. But the more telling number is the order book: program value of Rs 4,882 crore with peak annual value of Rs 1,016 crore, per their Q1 FY26 earnings release. Rico noted that its US customers are bearing the 25% tariff on existing orders. Lower tariffs would accelerate order conversion and make future US-bound development projects more competitive against global peers.

Aarti Industries (AARTIIND): Specialty Chemicals in the Crossfire

Aarti Industries, India's largest specialty chemicals player, called the 25% US tariff "a near-term headwind for the Indian chemical sector, temporarily eroding competitiveness against European as well as Chinese suppliers," per their Q2 FY26 earnings call. The company has responded by diversifying markets. An 18% tariff would partially restore competitiveness against European suppliers who face lower duties, potentially reversing the order diversion of recent quarters.

How Big Is the Tariff Cost? PGIL Puts a Number on It

To quantify the actual margin drag, consider Pearl Global Industries (PGIL), the garment exporter that disclosed tariff costs of Rs 31 crore in a single quarter — per their Q3 FY26 earnings call. Their MD noted that "18% would be somewhere from mid-March when actual trade deal will be signed," and that the penalty tariff removal "gives some kind of advantage to our bottom line." If non-textile exporters face proportional tariff drag, the margin upside from moving to 18% is material across all sectors.

What Retail Investors Should Do

The India-US trade deal is in its final stage, but it is not signed yet. Retail investors should focus on companies that have already demonstrated they can grow through tariff headwinds — Apex Frozen Foods, Avanti Feeds, and Rolex Rings all posted strong results despite higher duties. These businesses get a free margin boost if the deal closes, without needing the deal to survive. Avoid companies whose investment case depends entirely on tariff relief. The best trade-deal stocks are the ones that win regardless.

Data sourced from company filings on NSE via Xaro.