Brent crude is back in the danger zone. Escalating US-Iran tensions have pushed oil prices toward $111 per barrel — a level India hasn’t had to contend with since the commodity supercycle of 2022. For a country that imports roughly 83% of its crude oil, this isn’t just an energy story. It’s a macro event that ripples through airline balance sheets, paint factory input costs, and the profit margins of every fuel pump in the country.

We searched through corporate filings on NSE to find which companies are most exposed — and which ones stand to gain.

The Squeeze: Oil Marketing Companies

India’s oil marketing companies (OMCs) are the most directly exposed. These companies buy crude at global prices but sell petrol and diesel at government-influenced retail prices. When crude spikes, the gap between their purchase cost and selling price compresses — or disappears entirely.

HPCL reported a gross refining margin (GRM) of just $5.95 per barrel in H1 FY26, per their board outcome filing. For context, that same metric was $9.84 per barrel a year earlier — and that was with Brent averaging around $80/bbl. At $111 crude, GRMs could compress to levels that make refining barely profitable. BPCL tells a similar story. Per their FY25 investor presentation, the company saw full-year profit before tax fall to ₹17,664 crore from ₹35,548 crore in FY24 — nearly halving — driven by marketing inventory losses of ₹905 crore and volatile crude spreads. The company has been recovering in FY26 as crude fell to the $67–75 range, with 9-month FY26 PBT reaching ₹26,846 crore. A return to $111 crude threatens to reverse that recovery. Indian Oil Corporation, the country’s largest OMC, is reporting Q4 FY26 results today. Per their recent quarterly filings, IOC processed 53 million metric tonnes of crude through its refineries in the first nine months of FY26. At $111/bbl, every dollar of GRM compression across that volume translates directly into hundreds of crores in lost profit.

Airlines: Fuel Is 31% of the Cost Base

IndiGo is India’s dominant airline, and fuel is its single largest expense. Per their FY26 board outcome filing, aircraft fuel expenses totalled ₹261,973 million for the full year — roughly 31% of total operating costs of ₹840,982 million. Their investor presentations show fuel cost per Available Seat Kilometer (ASK) swinging from ₹1.42 in low-crude periods to ₹2.01 when crude runs hot — a 42% increase that flows almost entirely to the bottom line.

IndiGo’s EBITDAR margin was 29.7% in Q1 FY25 per their investor presentation. A sustained crude spike to $111 would pressure that margin significantly, especially since airlines have limited ability to pass through costs quickly via fare increases without losing passengers.

The Lubricant Pinch

Castrol India, the lubricants maker, disclosed in their FY24 earnings transcript that base oil prices closely track crude: “crude went to $65, it’s in range bound between $68 to $70.” Their annual report noted that base oil prices hit multi-year highs during the 2022 crude spike, creating supply shortages as “refiners prioritized fuel production over base oil.” At $111 crude, the same dynamic would return — squeezing both cost and supply for Castrol’s key raw material.

The Quiet Winners: Upstream Producers

While downstream companies suffer, upstream oil producers have the opposite problem — in a good way.

Oil India Limited reported average crude oil price realization of $67.22 per barrel in H1 FY26, per their investor presentation — down 18.11% from $82.09 the prior year. That price decline alone caused revenue to fall roughly 44%. The math works just as dramatically in reverse: at $111/bbl, Oil India’s realization would jump roughly 65% from current levels. The company already carries an EBITDA margin of 46.3% and a PAT margin of 29.8% per their latest results — higher crude makes an already-profitable operation significantly more so. ONGC, India’s largest upstream producer, operates at similar leverage. Per their quarterly filings, ONGC’s earnings per share for 9M FY26 was ₹20.86 versus ₹23.18 in the prior year period, reflecting the crude price decline from $80+ levels. ONGC has also been expanding exploration — their investor presentation highlights discovery across 8 out of 9 Indian basins. At $111 crude, every barrel produced becomes dramatically more valuable.

A Central Bank of India filing noted the macro rule of thumb: “Each $10 rise in oil reduces growth (~0.1pp).” From $70 to $111 is a $41 jump — suggesting a potential 0.4 percentage point drag on GDP growth, compounding the pain for import-dependent India.

What Retail Investors Should Do

Don’t panic-sell OMCs or airlines on the headline alone. These companies have weathered crude spikes before, and the government typically intervenes with excise duty cuts or direct subsidies when prices stay elevated. However, be realistic about near-term earnings: BPCL’s FY25 profit halving is a real example of what $80+ crude does to OMC margins, and $111 would be considerably worse.

If you’re looking for a hedge within your Indian portfolio, upstream producers like Oil India and ONGC offer direct crude price exposure. Oil India’s 46.3% EBITDA margin at $67/bbl crude gives you a sense of how profitable these businesses become when crude runs higher.

Watch IOC’s Q4 results today for the first real-time read on how OMCs are managing the transition from low-crude tailwinds to potential headwinds. And for IndiGo holders, monitor fuel surcharge announcements — the airline’s ability to pass through costs will determine how much of the crude spike hits margins versus gets absorbed by passengers.

Data sourced from company filings on NSE via Xaro.