Oil Crisis Crashes the Sensex — But These Gas and EV Stocks Quietly Win

Oil Crisis Crashes the Sensex — But These Gas and EV Stocks Quietly Win

The Sensex plunged over 1,000 points on May 11 as US-Iran tensions sent crude oil prices surging. PM Modi followed with an unprecedented public appeal for fuel conservation and austerity — a move Nomura called a signal of "fiscal stress at tipping point." State oil refiners are reportedly eyeing modest fuel price hikes as losses mount.

The market's knee-jerk reaction hammered everything. But a closer look at company filings reveals a clear divide: while oil marketing companies bleed from under-recoveries, a handful of gas and EV supply chain stocks are structurally positioned to gain from every rupee that crude rises.

The Obvious Losers: Oil Marketing Companies

Hindustan Petroleum (HPCL), Indian Oil (IOC), and Bharat Petroleum (BPCL) are the frontline casualties. Per HPCL's quarterly results, the company swung to a full-year loss of ₹11,915 crore in FY23 when crude spiked — and with the government reluctant to pass costs to consumers, that pattern repeats every time oil runs hot. IOC's filings show similar vulnerability, with profits swinging wildly based on crude benchmarks and the government's willingness to allow retail price hikes. MRPL's annual report explicitly flags foreign currency risk from crude oil purchases as a top market risk, with its entire business — 96% refinery utilization — tied to the crude-to-product spread.

When crude spikes and retail prices stay frozen, OMCs absorb the blow. That is happening again right now.

Unexpected Winner #1: City Gas Distributors

Every spike in petrol and diesel prices widens the cost advantage of CNG — and city gas distributors have the infrastructure already in place to capture that demand.

Indraprastha Gas (IGL) reported 15.3% growth in PNG domestic sales in FY2024, the highest in five years, adding over 3.30 lakh new connections. The company operates 882 CNG stations serving approximately 18 lakh vehicles, per its FY24 annual report. As petrol prices climb, every auto-rickshaw and taxi driver in Delhi doing the math lands on CNG. Mahanagar Gas (MGL) delivered a revenue CAGR of approximately 23% from FY2019 to FY2023. Per its annual report, MGL plans to add more than 3 lakh new CNG vehicles and convert over 10 lakh households to PNG in the next five years — infrastructure build-out that pays off faster when liquid fuels get expensive. Gujarat Gas (GUJGASLTD), India's largest city gas distribution company, added approximately 1,80,000 new domestic customers and 102 CNG stations in FY23 alone, per its quarterly results. It operates across 44 districts in six states with a cumulative industrial and commercial volume close to 7,00,000 scmd. Adani Total Gas (ATGL) posted Q4 FY23 EBITDA of ₹205 crore, up 45% year-on-year, with CNG volumes growing 14% to 121 MMSCM, per its investor presentation.

Unexpected Winner #2: Gas Infrastructure

Behind every CGD company sits the pipeline. GAIL operates approximately 16,243 km of natural gas pipelines and commands roughly 65% of India's gas transmission market, per its FY24 annual report. Gas transmission volumes hit an all-time high of 120.46 MMSCMD in FY24, up 12% from 107.28 MMSCMD the year before. Revenue from the natural gas transmission segment surged 54.5% to ₹10,292 crore, up from ₹6,661 crore in FY23. When crude makes gas-based fuels relatively cheaper, GAIL's pipelines carry more volume at regulated tariffs — a structural benefit with limited downside.

Unexpected Winner #3: EV Supply Chain

High fuel prices do not just push consumers toward CNG — they accelerate the shift to electric vehicles, and two companies are building the domestic manufacturing backbone.

Exide Industries (EXIDEIND) reported FY2024-25 revenue of ₹16,588 crore with EBITDA of ₹1,893 crore and PAT of ₹1,077 crore, per its annual report. The company maintains a zero debt-to-equity ratio while simultaneously building a lithium-ion cell manufacturing facility slated to commercialise in FY26. Exide's chairman noted that investments in lithium-ion technology "position us uniquely to cater to the evolving energy needs of the market." Himadri Speciality Chemical (HSCL) achieved its highest-ever financials in FY2025, with EBITDA of ₹844 crore and PAT of ₹558 crore, per its annual report. Himadri is the first Indian producer of anode material for lithium-ion batteries and holds a strategic stake in Sicona Battery Technologies. Per its filings, the anode — together with the cathode — represents close to 65% of total lithium-ion cell cost, placing Himadri at the heart of India's EV supply chain.

What Retail Investors Should Do

Do not panic-sell into the oil-driven sell-off. The 1,000-point drop is a macro shock, but the filing data tells a more nuanced story. City gas distributors (IGL, MGL, Gujarat Gas) have demonstrated consistent volume growth that only accelerates when liquid fuels get more expensive. GAIL's pipeline infrastructure is a picks-and-shovels play on India's entire gas transition. And Exide and Himadri are building real manufacturing capacity for the EV shift — not just riding sentiment.

If you own OMCs, understand that their earnings are hostage to a political decision on fuel pricing. If you are looking at new positions, the filing evidence favours companies whose economics improve with sustained high oil prices, not the ones absorbing the loss.

Data sourced from company filings on NSE via Xaro.