US Slaps 123% Duty on Indian Solar Imports: Which Stocks Take the Hit?

US Slaps 123% Duty on Indian Solar Imports: Which Stocks Take the Hit?

The US Commerce Department has imposed a preliminary 123% anti-dumping duty on solar cell and module imports from India — a dramatic escalation that threatens to shut Indian manufacturers out of the world's second-largest solar market almost overnight. For Indian solar stocks that have been riding a multi-year export boom, the timing could not be worse.

Here is what company filings tell us about who is most exposed — and who might quietly benefit.

The Export Boom That Just Hit a Wall

India's solar module exports tripled in 2024 compared to the previous year, per Indosolar Limited's FY25 annual report (a subsidiary of Waaree Energies, India's largest solar module manufacturer and exporter). Much of that growth was directed at the US, where Indian modules were increasingly filling the gap left by tariffs on Chinese and Southeast Asian panels.

That growth story now faces an existential threat. A 123% duty effectively prices Indian modules out of the US market, where they had been gaining share rapidly.

Premier Energies: India's Largest Integrated Player Feels the Squeeze

Premier Energies (PREMIERENE) is India's largest fully integrated solar cell and module manufacturer, with installed capacity of 2.0 GW for cells and 5.1 GW for modules across three factories in Telangana.

Per their FY25 annual report, the company posted revenue of Rs 66,521 million with an EBITDA margin of 29.3% and net profit of Rs 9,371 million — strong numbers by any measure. But here is the concern: exports outside India surged 56% year-on-year to Rs 1,194 crore in FY25 (up from Rs 763 crore in FY24), accounting for roughly 12% of total revenue.

More importantly, Premier Energies is in the middle of a massive expansion — scaling to 10 GW of cell capacity and 8 GW of module capacity by FY28. Per their annual report, they hold an order book of Rs 84,456 million. The question for investors is: how much of that order book assumed continued US market access?

The company's earnings per share rose from Rs 6.93 in FY24 to Rs 21.35 in FY25. If the export growth engine stalls, sustaining that trajectory becomes much harder.

Waaree Energies: The Export Champion at Risk

Waaree Energies (WAAREEENER), described in its subsidiary Indosolar's FY25 annual report as "India's largest solar module manufacturer and exporter," sits at the forefront of the export story. Through Indosolar, the Waaree Group commenced 1.3 GW of new module manufacturing during FY25 and has been aggressively expanding capacity.

The Indosolar annual report explicitly notes that "India is becoming a significant player in the global solar supply chain, with exports of PV modules tripling in 2024." For Waaree, which has historically derived a substantial share of revenue from overseas markets including the US, a 123% duty is not a minor setback — it is a fundamental challenge to the growth thesis that has driven the stock's premium valuation.

Investors should watch for the next quarterly results to see how quickly Waaree can pivot volumes to other geographies or the domestic market.

Borosil Renewables: The Upstream Ripple Effect

Borosil Renewables (BORORENEW) manufactures solar glass — a critical component in every solar module. Per their FY24 annual report, the company's customers include India's major module manufacturers, and "a significant portion of the expansion in module capacity is being done by its existing customers."

Borosil has been fighting its own battle against Chinese dumping of solar glass through Southeast Asian subsidiaries. Their annual report details how Chinese manufacturers "circumvent Anti-dumping duties" by routing production through Malaysia and Vietnam. The company has been pushing Indian authorities for calibrated import duties on solar glass to provide a level playing field.

The US duty creates a double problem for Borosil: if Indian module manufacturers lose their US export market, they will produce fewer modules, which means less demand for Borosil's solar glass. With production capacity at 350 tonnes per day after recent upgrades, any demand slowdown hits utilisation rates and margins hard.

Oswal Pumps: The Smaller Player With a Domestic Buffer

Oswal Pumps (OSWALPUMPS) has been expanding into solar module manufacturing, planning to increase capacity by 1,500 MW per their FY25 annual report. However, Oswal's solar business is primarily domestic-focused — the company has delivered over 48,000 solar pumping systems under the PM-KUSUM government scheme across Maharashtra, Haryana, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh.

This domestic focus provides a natural buffer against the US duty, but Oswal still faces indirect risk: if larger manufacturers like Premier Energies and Waaree redirect export volumes to the domestic market, the resulting price pressure could squeeze margins for smaller players.

The Silver Lining: Domestic Solar Developers Could Win

If Indian module manufacturers cannot export to the US, they will need to sell more domestically. That means more supply chasing Indian buyers — and potentially lower module prices.

Adani Green Energy (ADANIGREEN), which is racing to build 30 GW of renewable capacity per its filings, could benefit. The company has a planned pipeline of 13,522 MW across solar, wind, and hybrid projects. Cheaper domestically manufactured modules could accelerate project economics and improve returns.

India's target of 280 GW solar capacity by 2030, with current installations around 66 GW per recent filings, means the domestic demand runway remains enormous. The PLI scheme's Rs 24,000 crore allocation for high-efficiency module manufacturing, as noted in Borosil Renewables' annual report, continues to support domestic capacity building regardless of export headwinds.

What Retail Investors Should Do

Do not panic-sell solar stocks on this headline alone. The 123% duty is preliminary — the final determination, expected later this year, could be materially different. During the US-China solar trade war, preliminary rates were sometimes reduced significantly in final rulings.

However, be realistic about the risks. Investors holding Premier Energies and Waaree Energies should monitor quarterly export revenue disclosures closely. A sharp drop in export contribution in Q1 FY26 results would confirm the worst-case scenario. For Borosil Renewables, watch module manufacturer production volumes — that is the leading indicator for solar glass demand.

The companies best positioned to weather this are those with strong domestic order books and diversified customer bases. India's own solar installation ambitions provide a massive domestic market — the question is whether the transition from exports to domestic sales can happen without crushing margins.

Data sourced from company filings on NSE via Xaro.