The West Asia conflict has escalated sharply, and crude oil prices are surging. Reuters reports that India has asked its auto industry to optimise production as the Iran war disrupts energy supplies. Moneycontrol warns of a crude oil spike hitting multiple sectors.

But which companies are actually exposed? We went into the quarterly filings to find out — and the numbers paint a stark picture of who stands to lose, and one company that quietly wins.

The Losers

IndiGo (INDIGO): Fuel Is a Third of Every Rupee Earned

No listed company in India is more directly exposed to crude oil than InterGlobe Aviation, which operates IndiGo. Per their Q2 FY25 quarterly results (October 2024), aircraft fuel expenses came in at Rs 68,414 million — roughly 34% of the airline's total income of Rs 200,623 million that quarter.

For the full year FY24, fuel expenses totalled Rs 236,460 million against total income of Rs 558,814 million — a staggering 42% ratio. Every dollar increase in crude directly inflates Aviation Turbine Fuel (ATF) prices. In their Q3 FY24 results, fuel expenses were Rs 57,851 million on income of Rs 154,102 million — a 38% ratio even in what was considered a benign crude environment.

When crude was lower in Q1 FY24, IndiGo's fuel bill dropped and the airline swung to healthy profitability. With crude now spiking again, investors should watch for margin compression in the upcoming Q4 FY25 results.

HINDPETRO: Refining Margins Already Under Pressure

Hindustan Petroleum's filings reveal a troubling trend even before the latest crisis. Per their Q1 FY25 quarterly results (July 2024), the average Gross Refining Margin (GRM) was just US $5.03 per barrel — down sharply from US $7.44 per barrel in the corresponding period of FY24.

That 32% GRM decline happened when crude was merely volatile, not surging. HINDPETRO processed 6.30 million metric tonnes of crude in Q1 FY25, up from 5.75 MMT a year earlier, but higher throughput couldn't offset the margin squeeze. Basic EPS fell to Rs 2.97 in Q1 FY25 from the FY24 full-year figure of Rs 53.21. A sustained crude spike, combined with government pressure to hold retail fuel prices, could compress margins further.

BPCL: Profit Swings Show the Vulnerability

Bharat Petroleum's quarterly results tell a dramatic story of crude sensitivity. In Q3 FY24 (January 2024 filing), BPCL reported a profit before tax of Rs 14,013 crore. By Q1 FY25 (July 2024 filing), that figure had plummeted to Rs 4,032 crore — a 71% drop in just two quarters.

BPCL's Q3 FY25 results (January 2025) show refinery throughput of 9.54 MMT with market sales of 13.43 MMT and sales growth of just 3.95%. The company's dual role as refiner and fuel retailer means it gets squeezed from both sides during crude spikes: input costs rise immediately, while pump prices are politically sensitive and slow to adjust.

Asian Paints: The Crude Link Nobody Talks About

Most investors don't think of paint companies when crude spikes — but they should. Asian Paints' Q3 FY24 quarterly results explicitly flagged a "soft raw material environment" as the driver behind a 400 basis point improvement in consolidated PBDIT margin to 22.7%.

A paint industry annual report (from 20 Microns, FY24) states it plainly: "In the first half of FY24 with a decrease in crude oil prices, the prices of key raw materials witnessed a decline. As a result, with paint prices remaining stable, the industry is projected to see an increase in profit margins, ranging from 100 to 200 basis points."

The reverse is equally true. When crude rises, titanium dioxide, solvents, and petrochemical-based resins — all key paint inputs — become more expensive. Asian Paints' 400 bps margin tailwind could quickly become a headwind.

The Quiet Winner

Oil India (OIL): Upstream Means Upside

While downstream companies scramble, Oil India sits on the other side of the equation. As an upstream exploration and production company, higher crude prices directly translate to higher revenue per barrel.

Per their FY23 annual results, Oil India reported total income of Rs 41,758 crore and profit after tax of Rs 9,854 crore. The company has been investing in expanding production, including Ocean Bottom Node seismic surveys in offshore fields (noted in their Q3 FY25 results, January 2025). Higher crude realization on every barrel produced goes straight to the bottom line.

Oil India's pipeline throughput and production volumes provide operating leverage — the same fixed-cost infrastructure generates more revenue when crude prices rise. For investors worried about the West Asia crisis, upstream producers like Oil India represent a natural hedge within the energy sector.

What Retail Investors Should Do

The West Asia crude spike creates a clear playbook. First, review your portfolio for crude-sensitive names — airlines, oil marketing companies (OMCs), and paint companies face the most direct margin pressure. Second, don't panic-sell OMCs like HINDPETRO and BPCL; their valuations often already discount crude volatility, and government support mechanisms (like buffer accounts noted in HINDPETRO's filings) provide some cushion. Third, consider whether upstream producers like Oil India deserve a place in your portfolio as a crude hedge. Finally, watch Q4 FY25 results closely — the filing data will reveal exactly how much damage (or benefit) the crude spike delivers to each company's bottom line.

Data sourced from company filings on NSE via Xaro.