Oil Surges Toward $100 as Hormuz Crisis Escalates — Which Indian Stocks Get Hurt and Who Wins

Oil Surges Toward $100 as Hormuz Crisis Escalates — Which Indian Stocks Get Hurt and Who Wins

Crude oil prices are surging toward $100 per barrel as the West Asia conflict escalates and fears of a Strait of Hormuz disruption mount. India imports over 85% of its crude oil, much of it transiting the Hormuz chokepoint, making this one of the most consequential macro risks for Indian equities right now. The Sensex fell over 800 points on March 12, with Nifty dropping below 23,500.

We dug into actual company filings on NSE to find which stocks face the most direct pain — and which ones quietly benefit.

The Losers: Companies Where Oil Is the Biggest Line Item

IndiGo (INDIGO) — Fuel is 40% of operating costs

India's largest airline is among the most oil-sensitive stocks on the NSE. Per their Q3 FY24 quarterly results, IndiGo's aircraft fuel expenses were ₹68,414 crore for the quarter alone, out of total expenses of ₹1,70,634 crore — roughly 40% of all operating costs. For the full year FY23, fuel expenses totalled ₹2,36,460 crore out of ₹5,61,946 crore in total expenses, holding steady at about 42%.

Every $10/bbl move in crude directly compresses IndiGo's margins. With limited ability to pass through costs immediately via ticket pricing (competitive pressure from rivals), a sustained $100 oil environment would significantly hurt quarterly profits.

BPCL — Refining margins in freefall

Bharat Petroleum's gross refining margin (GRM) has already been collapsing even before this latest oil spike. Per their Q3 FY25 quarterly results, BPCL's GRM for the nine months ended December 2024 was just $5.95 per barrel — down sharply from $14.72/bbl in April-December 2023. For context, their Q1 FY24 GRM was $12.64/bbl (itself already down from $27.51/bbl in Q1 FY23).

Oil marketing companies like BPCL face a double squeeze: higher crude procurement costs on one side, and government pressure to hold retail fuel prices stable on the other. Their refinery throughput of 29.93 MMT for 9M FY25 means every dollar of GRM compression translates to hundreds of crores in lost profit.

Asian Paints (ASIANPAINT) — Raw materials are petroleum derivatives

What most retail investors miss: paint is an oil-dependent industry. Key raw materials like titanium dioxide, phthalic anhydride, and various resins are crude oil derivatives. Asian Paints explicitly flagged this in their results. Per their Q1 FY25 quarterly results, PBDIT margin fell to 20.3% from 24.7% in the prior year, with net sales declining 2.9% to ₹7,852.5 crore.

The silver lining: when crude softened in Q3 FY24, Asian Paints saw PBDIT margins jump 400 basis points to 22.7%, which they attributed to a "soft raw material environment." The reverse — crude at $100 — would unwind those gains.

Tyre Sector (JK Tyre, Apollo, CEAT) — Rubber meets crude

Tyre companies consume large quantities of synthetic rubber and carbon black, both petroleum derivatives. JK Tyre's chairman noted in their FY23 results that "operating margins improved sequentially, aided by softening in input costs" — directly tying profitability to crude oil prices. With JK Tyre posting its highest-ever revenue of ₹14,691 crore in FY23 (up 22%), any reversal in input cost trends threatens that record profitability.

The Automotive Tyre Manufacturers' Association (ATMA) has already sought policy support from the government, warning of the West Asia crisis impact on the industry.

The Winners: Who Benefits From $100 Oil

ONGC — India's upstream oil producer gains directly

Oil & Natural Gas Corporation is the most direct beneficiary of higher crude prices. As India's largest domestic oil producer, every dollar increase in crude price flows straight to ONGC's top line. Their FY23 consolidated results showed net profit of ₹32,778 crore, down from ₹49,294 crore in FY22 — a year when crude prices were elevated post the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

With oil heading back toward $100, ONGC's price realizations improve. The stock has historically tracked crude prices closely, and current levels suggest significant earnings upside if elevated prices persist through FY26.

Coal India (COALINDIA) — The alternative energy play

When oil gets expensive, thermal coal becomes relatively more attractive for power generation. Coal India, which produced 789 million tonnes in Q1 FY25, stands to benefit from increased power sector demand and potentially higher e-auction premiums. The company recently hit 52-week highs and has rallied up to 15% in a month, per market reports.

Adani Total Gas (ATGL) — CNG as the transport fuel pivot

Adani Total Gas has been surging — up nearly 40% in just two sessions — and the filing data shows why this matters structurally. Per their FY23 quarterly results, ATGL's CNG sales volumes grew 28% year-on-year to 459 MMSCM, with total revenue up 46% to ₹4,683 crore. Their CEO noted that "government vision in moving towards a gas-based economy" is driving expansion.

As diesel and petrol prices rise with crude, CNG becomes a more compelling alternative for transport and industrial users. ATGL has been expanding its CNG station network aggressively and completed minimum work programmes across 14 of 15 geographical areas.

What Retail Investors Should Do

The Hormuz crisis creates a clear dividing line across your portfolio. Here is how to think about positioning:

1. Audit your oil exposure. If you hold IndiGo, BPCL, HPCL, IOC, paint stocks, or tyre companies, understand that sustained $100 oil compresses their margins materially. This does not mean sell everything, but size your positions for the risk.

2. Consider upstream energy. ONGC and Oil India directly benefit from higher crude. Coal India benefits indirectly as thermal coal demand rises. These are natural hedges against oil price shocks.

3. Watch refining margins, not just crude prices. For OMCs like BPCL, the GRM tells you more than the crude price alone. A GRM collapse from $14.72 to $5.95 per barrel (as happened in 9M FY25) signals real earnings pain.

4. Do not panic-sell on single-day drops. The Sensex falling 800 points is dramatic but geopolitical premiums in oil can reverse quickly if diplomatic channels open. Use volatility to rebalance, not to flee.

5. Track the Hormuz situation daily. If actual shipping disruptions occur (versus threats), the impact on Indian markets would be far more severe than what we have seen so far.

Data sourced from company filings on NSE via Xaro.